Podcasting's Hollowed-Out Middle Class

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Podcasting has some really good benchmarking statistics, thanks to the work of Rob Walsh, Vice President of Podcaster Relations at Libsyn (Liberated Syndication), largest podcast hosting company based on the total number of shows on the platform. Every month, Rob breaks down Libsyn's aggregate numbers and gives us what the download averages for the prior 45 days or so. Then he groups the data into tiers, providing download thresholds necessary to reach the top 20%, 10% 5%, 2%, and then finally, the top 1% of podcasts hosted on Libsyn. If you listen to The Feed, you’ll hear these numbers each month just like I do.

I used to report these numbers to my clients, telling them what tier their shows fell into over the same period provided by Rob. But I've stopped reporting on that number because it assumes my clients are trying to reach those upper tiers. And while many of them would be thrilled with sharing the same level as the top shows out there, it’s not likely to happen for shows that are designed for niche audiences. Riches are in the niches, you’ll recall.

What we (or at least I) really need to see is a distribution chart that shows clusters of podcasts by audience size. You’ve seen distribution charts when you look at ratings and reviews for products on Amazon (and lots of other places). When you see an average rating of 4.29 stars, often you can click through to see the number of reviews received at each level that make up that average in a nice little graph. That’s a distribution graph.

And what you’ll notice when you look at those graphs is that the middle is almost always empty.

That's because people who rate and review things tend to rate things they either love or hate. But if they neither love nor hate it, many people just won’t make the effort to say “it was OK”. So it's pretty natural to see a hollowed-out middle when it comes to ratings and reviews.

We don't have that distribution chart in podcasting. Or if we do, I haven't seen it. Yet this is something that the podcast hosting companies could make for us. It’s something that third-party tracking services like Chartable could make for us. They're not, but I really wish they would.

So without an actual chart, I’m going to speculate that podcasting’s distribution chart would also look very hollowed-out. To be clear, I'm not talking about ratings and reviews. I'm talking hollowed-out by the number of listeners across the spectrum.

My assumption is that if we grouped shows by the number of listeners/downloads, we would see a really big cluster of shows at the bottom of the distribution chart. Just using Libsyn’s numbers, we pretty confident that half of the 900,000 podcasts out there see less than 150 downloads per episode.

The further along the x-axis we travel, the size of the clusters of shows would drop off precipitously. How precipitously? We don’t know, because the data hasn’t been presented to us in this way. (Yet?)

But as we continue to travel that x-axis toward the other extreme -- audiences that are very, very large -- I’d wager we'd once again see an upswing. No, not nearly as large as the cluster on the bottom. But I’m betting that we’d see (or perhaps we’ll start to see) a new cluster of shows growing at the high end of the scale.

And a big gap in the middle. Hence the hollowing out of the middle of podcasting.

Honestly, I think that's an okay thing to happen. I don't think there's anything really for us to do about it. But there are some factors at play that tend to push podcasts to either to the upper- or lower-end. And those factors will continue to play a more important role, increasing the missing middle.

Factors that push the big-audience podcast cluster

1. Big podcast creation companies are getting more money.

Their business model is working. Whether driven by ad revenue or outside entities willing to invest big sums of money to make amazing content, the big podcast creation firms are ramping up to increase their output. As they grow their teams they can make more great shows. And they can leverage their own growing network of large, high-quality shows to quickly move their brand new show from no listeners to hundreds of thousands of listeners, spending virtually no time at all in the middle.

2. Podcast listening apps and directories get better at presenting better content.

Apple Podcasts has a big redesign coming. Spotify is rolling out a brand new redesign at the time of this publishing. This, in turn, is pushing the smaller, independent apps to also grow and get better. Part of all of that likely means making it easier for new listeners to discover outstanding content. That often means that the shows in the big cluster on one side will continue to get more preference and exposure in-app, growing their numbers.

3. Non-podcasting big media will continue to get excited about podcasting.

Big media covers the trends, and as podcasting grows, we’ll continue to see more mainstream media coverage. What kind of shows will they cover? The big ones that already have the attention (and the quality).

Factors that push the small-audience podcast cluster

On the bulging lower end, there are similar but different factors at play that will also continue to exert their own forces.

1. More people listening to podcasts means more people dabbling in podcasting.

This happened to blogging, social media, online video, and yes, even podcasting. And that will continue. Everyone who starts podcasting starts with an audience of zero. And even if they do grow, more will come along tomorrow to take their place with tiny, tiny audiences, feeding this cluster on a continual basis.

2. More services will make easier to podcast.

I can promise you that it’s gotten a lot easier to podcast over the last 16 years. Anchor was a huge factor in increasing the number of tiny (or no) audience shows because they made it dead-simple to start a podcast. I predict we’ll see even more of these low-end service providers crop up again, making it even easier to get a podcast launched. (Not easier to make a really good show, you understand.)

3. Smaller shows are often happy staying small.

Many who make smaller-audience shows are doing this for the fun or just a creative endeavor. While most hobbyists wouldn’t mind a little fame (or fortune), they’re not banking on it. That’s not why they podcast. They're often very okay having their shows exist within the micro-networks in which they find themselves. Those networks are just fine at making sure the people who are into the kinds of things found in those micro-networks are well-fed. Those shows service the audience that they need to service, so it’s working for them.

Those six factors will continue to drive the hollowing-out of podcasting’s middle-class. And I don't think it's a bad thing.

What do the podcasters you hang out with think about that statement? Are you sharing your numbers with one another? You should, and then you can make your own distribution curve to share with others. Tell your podcasting compatriots to listen to this episode of Podcast Pontifications and see if you can get them interested in contributing your own distribution graph. Maybe you’ll inspire others. Heck, I’ll even play along if you ask!

I shall be back tomorrow with yet another Podcast Pontifications.

Cheers!

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For as democratic as our medium is, podcasting isn't immune to the widening gap between the haves and the have nots, but is that hollowing out a natural or an unnatural phenomenon? And what are podcasters to do about it?

Hello and welcome to another podcast. Pontifications with me. Evo terror. Now, podcasting has some really good bench marking numbers, mostly provided us, provided to us by mr Rob Walsh, the vice president of podcast, or relations at Libsyn, liberated syndication, which is, I believe, the biggest hosting company for at least the independent podcasters.

And I think the sheer volume of podcasts and the number of podcasts are the biggest ones. Uh, so thanks. Thanks, Rob, for giving that every month. Rob goes onto a show that he does with a podcast, happiness, um, Wrangler Elsie Escobar, and gives us at the end of one of the episodes, the breakdown of the tears.

And Rob breaks it down by looking at Libsyn's numbers and tells us what the average number of downloads is for a podcast over the last 45 days. And then proceeds to tell us what the breakdown is for the top 20 so if your show's over X number, you're in the top 20 of all podcasters and then a bigger number to get you the top 10 and then five and two and then finally the top one.

And he's been doing that for years. So if you want to go back and see what percentage tier level you fit into at any given time based on your downloads after 30 ish or so days per episode, you can get that information very helpful. I used to report on it to my clients, but I've stopped because I'm not so sure it's telling us.

Well, it assumes we all have the same. Goal in mind in that is to have the biggest number one problem with it. Second problem is it's not really talking about, let me change the way I'm saying this whole thing cause I don't want to, I don't want to disparage it. It's a good number, but here's what we need.

I would much rather see, or maybe in addition to, I want to see a distribution chart and by a distribution chart, I mean I want to see the number of shows. At each of these points, maybe how many podcasts, what is the percentage of the network that has a listener base of, let's say 50 they get 50 downloads, how many number, what's the number of that, and then a hundred then one 15 all the way up until you get to the literally millions.

I want to know the number of podcasts. The number of shows in each one of those. And the reason I want to do that as simple, um, you've probably noticed a distribution chart. When you look at things like ratings and reviews, anything you look at on Amazon, Yelp, any of their ratings and reviews, places, you'll notice they've got an average number of three and a half stars, five stars, 4.29 stars.

Your Uber driver. That's great. That tells you one thing, but if you look deeper, if you click in, especially on Amazon, you click in, you can see the number of five star reviews, four star reviews, three star, two star, and one star reviews, and that'll show you those in a nice little graph. How many in each one of those, of course, they sum those up to get the average, but what you'll notice as you look at those graphs is the middle is almost always empty.

And that's because the people who rate and review content tend to rate things that they love or hate, not so much in the middle. So it's pretty natural to see a hollowed out middle when it comes to ratings and reviews. But that's a distribution chart and that's the kind of distribution chart I want to see in podcasting.

We don't have that distribution chart and podcasting, or if we do, I haven't seen it. And this is something that the podcast hosting companies could make for us. This is something that the third party tracking services like chartable or well, I'll stick with charitable could do for us if they wanted to, but they're not doing it and I really wish they would.

My assumption is if we were to look at that distribution chart, it would also look very hollowed out, and I'm not talking about ratings and reviews. I'm talking hollowed out by number of listeners. I think that when we looked at the total number of shows, we would see a big number, a really big number at the bottom, number of shows of the 900,000 podcasts we have now.

There'll be a large number of them that are on the low end of that spectrum. And then as you got larger, a number of listeners, as you went further to the right on that, you would see that number of shows drop precipitously. But as you reach the other extreme audiences that are very, very large, you'd see an upswing again.

Hence the hollowing out of the middle of podcasting. Now. I think that's an okay thing. I don't think there's anything really for us to do about it. I think we use it to understand that it's probably, it's likely hollowed out in the middle, and I think the reason that the middle is hollowed out, that things, that podcast tend to be clustered in the low end.

Which has the biggest cluster or all the way to the high end, which also has another large concurring cluster. I think there are some factors at play that pushed things either to the upper end or push things to the lower end, and I think they're gonna continue. So the things that I think are shifting podcasts to the upper end, our three one big podcasting companies are going to get more money.

Because this is working. They're making great content. People are more interested in the medium. They're getting more money, which means they can make more shows there. As their companies grow, as their teams grow, more shows come in, and those companies can now use their own internal network effect to raise those shows up.

To lift them up to the higher subscriber numbers, so they quickly move from no listeners to tens or hundreds of thousands of listeners very quickly. That's number one. Number two, as our listening apps and our directories get better, Apple podcast has got to redesign coming. Spotify just had a brand new redesign.

All of the smaller independent apps are growing. As they get better, they're going to showcase. The things people listened to on those apps, and those tend to be higher shows. That's automatically going to give more preference, more exposure to big shows, which will lift that all the way up. And then thirdly, big publications and media outside of podcasting are going to get excited about podcasting.

They're getting excited about podcasting. They will start covering podcasting more, I guess what kind of shows they're going to cover. The big ones, the big ones that are really, really great quality. Which drives even more ears to those big shows. So that's what causes things to shift to the upper end on the bulging lower end.

That's going to continue to increase as well. More people listening because more people who want to try podcasting, they're going to start with a show with an audience of zero. They will number two, find more tools out there to make it easier for them. The jump into podcasting just like anchored did several years ago.

You'll have more companies like that that make it easy to get into podcasting that don't necessarily, however, make it easier to make a really good show. And then thirdly, most interestingly, I think is the people who do make these smaller shows who are doing it for the fun, for the hobbyist out there.

They're okay with it. They're okay with their own little micro networks of people who like the little kinds of things that they do. That naturally keep their shows little, but it's okay. They're servicing the audience that they need to serve us with them. I think those six factors are, we're going to continue to drive the hollowing out a podcast.

He's middle-class and I don't think it's a bad thing. What are your fellow podcasters? Think about that. Have you shared your numbers with your others that you communicate with that you interface with in podcasting? I think you should do that. Find out where you all fit. Make your own distribution curve, especially the more people that you know about.

Tell them you found this episode of podcast pontifications interesting and see what their numbers are and put together your own little distribution graph so you can see where you stand out with your peers. That's it. I shall be back tomorrow with yet another podcast. Pontifications cheers.

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